How markets work

HIP-4 markets are native Hyperliquid prediction markets. Each one is a question with an order book, exactly like a spot pair, except that the two “tokens” being traded are the Yes and No sides of an outcome.

The book

• A market asks a question with a written resolution rule (“Will ETH be above $X on date Y?”).
• You buy Yes or No shares. Prices float between 0.001 and 0.999 USDC, and read as the implied chance.
• At resolution the winning side redeems for 1 USDC, less Hyperliquid’s settlement fee, and the losing side for 0.
• You can sell out early at the going price at any time before resolution.
• The smallest position is $1.

These markets take market and limit orders, with the same time-in-force options as spot. See Order types.

On the market page

• The question, the live chance, and a countdown to resolution.
• A chance chart of both sides.
• The order book, recent trades, and the activity tape.
• Volume and open interest.
• Holders’ positions: who holds this market, on which side, and at what average entry.
• The settlement rules, verbatim from the deployer.
• The deployer that listed the market.
• Your own tickets on that market, if you hold any.

Who lists a market, and who settles it

Anyone who posts the stake to run a venue can list a market. Neither Hyperliquid nor Liquary curates the catalogue.

• The question, the participants, the side labels and the rules are the deployer’s free text. They are not moderated.
• The deployer publishes the result.

When two deployers list the same match

When two venues list the same fixture, Liquary shows one card: the deployers’ logos stack on it, and their books are read as a single ladder.

• A market buy is routed across the venues, cheapest shares first, in one signature. The amount you enter is a budget: the order can cost less, never more.
• Selling is not routed. Shares live at the venue where they were bought, so a sale closes there. This is why the position list can show the same fixture twice.
• You can pin a single venue if you want one book rather than the merged one. A limit order posts at the pinned venue, using that venue’s own side labels, and the card tells you which.
• A merged ladder can look crossed (one venue’s ask under another’s bid); the spread is then displayed as zero.

Settlement

1. The market stops trading and enters awaiting settlement. The market page says so, and shows how long ago it closed.
2. The result is published on-chain. The markets Hyperliquid itself runs are settled by its validators voting: the market page lists them as they sign, until quorum finalises the result. A market listed by a third-party deployer is settled by that deployer’s own key, with no validator vote.
3. Winning shares become redeemable for $1 each, less Hyperliquid’s settlement fee (Liquary takes none). On a two-sided match that ends in a draw, both sides pay $0.50 and there is no winner.

While a market awaits settlement, Liquary may show an estimated result, labelled unofficial and withheld when the outcome is too close to call. It is an indication, never the verdict.

After it settles: the archive

Hyperliquid purges a settled HIP-4 market shortly after it resolves. Liquary keeps the record, so a settled market stays readable:

• Results in the app: every settled market with its winning side, final price or score, and your own position if you had one.
• The Data section: its odds curve, the validators who signed, the settlement reason.
• The Archive API: every settlement since May 2026 as JSON, free and unauthenticated.

Families and recurring questions

Many questions recur (a daily BTC market, a weekly ETH market), and many are one question with many outcomes (a tournament winner). Both are grouped into a family with one page: every leg on one chart, the full settlement history underneath.

A family page shows the family’s volume, the sum of its legs; a single leg’s own volume is smaller.

Quote asset

Outcome markets are quoted and settled in USDC, the same collateral as spot and perps: no bridge, no conversion.