Prediction markets
Prediction markets let you take a position on the outcome of a real-world or on-chain event (“Will BTC close above $X today?”, “Who wins the World Cup?”) and settle in USDC: on Hyperliquid, or on Polygon for Polymarket’s markets.
Open them from Predictions in the navigation.
How a market pays
A binary market has two sides: Yes / No, or Up / Down on a price question. Each share pays 1 USDC if its side wins and 0 if it loses, so the price of a share (between 0 and 1) reads as the market’s implied chance. You can sell your shares at the going price any time before the market resolves.
These are HIP-4 markets: native Hyperliquid prediction markets with a real order book, taking market and limit orders like any spot pair. See How markets work.
The board also carries Polymarket’s markets. When both venues list the same market, it is one card, and the ticket compares the two on the price you would actually pay. See Polymarket.
One ticket
Every market page has one order ticket. Pick Buy or Sell, then the order type:
- Market: type a stake in dollars, and the ticket shows what it pays if you’re right.
- Limit: name your price and let the order rest on the book.
- TWAP (Hyperliquid markets only): spread a size over a few minutes, from your browser tab. See TWAP on prediction markets.
Browsing
The Predictions rail groups:
- Markets (the board), your Profile and My tickets.
- Calendar: the next seven days on one timeline, in your time zone. A match sits at its kickoff, one line per match; any other market at its resolution deadline. A match with no published kickoff is listed at the end.
- Results: everything already settled, with the winning side and the final price or score.
- Deposit, Withdraw and Swap (your HyperCore tokens into USDC).
- Leaderboard (the wallets that make money on these markets), Points and Referrals.
- Trading, the door back to the trading desk, and Settings.
Search every market with ⌘K / Ctrl+K. The public dataset, HIP-4 Data, is linked from the footer’s Predictions column.
On the board:
- Categories in a bar under the navigation: all, live, the categories that have markets (sport, esport, politics, geopolitics, crypto, stocks, commodities, macro, tech, culture, science) and the disciplines inside sport.
- A Deployed by menu, since anyone can list a market (see below), and a sort: 24h volume (the default), Total volume, Ending soon, New and Close calls. Each card prints the volume it is ranked on, tagged 24h under the default sort. A match prints the whole match: every Hyperliquid listing plus Polymarket’s whole event, spreads, totals and props included.
- Show more markets, at the end of each category, brings in Polymarket’s markets the board does not carry.
- Most traded, Settling soon, 24h movers, and Live trades, which names the side each wallet took, at that side’s price.
Browsing needs no wallet. Signed out, the board shows its first 36 markets, then a sign-in button; search and every market page stay open to everyone. You need a wallet to see the rest of the board and to take a position.
Shapes of market
| Shape | What it is | Do the chances add up to 100%? |
|---|---|---|
| Binary | One question, two sides | Yes, by construction |
| Partition | Several outcomes, exactly one pays (World Cup winner) | Yes, across the family |
| Ladder | Independent markets on rising price levels | No: they nest, and routinely sum past 200% |
| Set (Polymarket) | Independent answers, any number can pay (teams relegated) | No |
Who lists the markets
HIP-4 listing is permissionless: markets are deployed by whoever posts the stake to run a venue on Hyperliquid, not by Liquary. The deployer writes the question, the rules and the side labels, and publishes the result.
- Read the rules on the market page. They are the deployer’s own text, and they are what settles the market.
- Every market page names its deployer, and the Data section publishes each one’s settled volume and settlement delay, so a venue can be judged on its record.
Fees
A flat 0.05% Liquary builder fee on each fill, buying and selling alike, waived until October 31, 2026.
Hyperliquid’s own fee is charged to the seller, never on a buy: on a cash-out, and on a winning position’s payout when the market settles. Liquary takes nothing at settlement. See Fees. Polymarket orders pay Polymarket’s fee instead: see Polymarket.
One balance for all of it
Predictions share a USDC balance with perps and spot: no money to move between them.
Polymarket is the one exception: its positions are paid from a Polymarket balance on Polygon, in the same wallet. The ticket tops it up from HyperCore when an order needs it, and Manage on your Profile moves money between the two, either way. See Polymarket.
The Predictions side shows what you can put in a ticket now: those two balances. When your wallet holds more elsewhere, a line under the balances says so, with the way in:
- + $X in HyperCore tokens · Swap: tokens other than USDC on HyperCore, opening Swap on the largest one, with USDC as what you receive;
- + $X on other chains · Deposit: money on HyperEVM, the other EVM chains or a linked Solana wallet, opening the deposit on the largest holding.