Outcomes: prediction markets
Prediction markets let you take a position on the outcome of a real-world or on-chain event (“Will BTC close above $X today?”, “Will the Fed cut rates?”) and settle in USDC on Hyperliquid.
Browse them all at Outcomes in the navigation.
How prediction markets work
A binary market has two sides: UP / YES and DOWN / NO. Each share pays out 1 USDC if its side wins, and 0 if it loses. Because of that, the price of a YES share (between 0 and 1) reads directly as the market’s implied probability: a YES trading at 0.62 means the market prices the event at ~62%.
- Buy the side you believe is underpriced. If you’re right, your shares redeem at 1 USDC each at settlement.
- You can exit early by selling your shares back at the current price, before the market resolves.
These are HIP-4 markets: native Hyperliquid prediction markets with a real order book, so they support market, limit, stop-loss, and take-profit orders just like spot. Read How markets work for the details.
Browsing markets
The Outcomes list supports:
- Categories: crypto, macro, sport, and other.
- A featured market plus trending markets in the sidebar.
- Search: find any market with ⌘K / Ctrl+K.
- Archive: resolved one-off events (elections, finals, macro prints) are kept in the archive with their settled results.
- Families: recurring markets (e.g. a daily BTC question) have a family page with their full settlement history.
Browsing markets, prices, and history is fully public: no wallet required. You only connect to take a position. Outcome markets are quoted and settled in USDC, the same collateral you use for spot and perps.
Fees
Prediction markets follow the same fee structure as spot: the Hyperliquid protocol fee plus Hypersight’s 0.05% builder fee, waived until October 31, 2026, so for now you pay the protocol fee only. See Fees.